Northern Lights Forecast: Aurora Could Be Visible In These 7 States Sunday

Skywatchers across the northern United States may have a rare opportunity to view the aurora borealis this Sunday. According to a forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the phenomenon is expected as the planet experiences the impacts of geomagnetic storms caused by high speed solar winds.

NOAA predicted a Kp index of four out of nine for Sunday night, meaning the aurora could appear “brighter” with more “motion and formations,” and potentially visible further from the magnetic north pole. Forecasters are expecting a coronal mass ejection that left the Sun between Wednesday and Thursday could arrive at the Earth by Sunday — these typically interact with the Earth’s magnetosphere and cause the aurora to appear visible further south. This solar material could combine with solar winds from a coronal hole, according to NOAA’s three-day forecast, and cause minor geomagnetic storms and an “isolated period” of more powerful storms. Coronal holes are large, relatively cooler regions of the Sun that appear as dark spaces in solar photography, according to NOAA.

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Visibility and Geographic Scope

The storms predicted for Sunday are only “minor,” but even these have the added effect of causing the aurora to appear visible from parts of the continental United States. The aurora has a “low likelihood” of visibility in states along the U.S.-Canadian border for Sunday, including the very northern parts of Washington, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. Most of Alaska could also see the northern lights, with a large portion of the state falling in the “high likelihood” region of NOAA’s aurora forecast map.

Observers in other regions should note that data from Lights Watch indicates that during moderate activity (KP 3–4) it covers Canada, Alaska, Iceland, northern Scotland, and Scandinavia. KP 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm.

Essential Viewing Tips

Experts recommend viewers travel as far north as possible before trying to catch the lights. Viewers should position themselves on a vantage point away from sources of light pollution with a clear view of the sky facing north.

• Optimal Hours: They should also try to time their trips to the hours when the aurora is most active — typically between 10 p.m. And 2 a.m. Displays arrive in bursts lasting 10–30 minutes, so keep checking through the night.
• Environment: Seek out a vantage point far from artificial city light pollution. A clear, unobstructed view of the northern horizon is necessary.
• Adaptation: Give your eyes 15–20 minutes to adapt to the dark.
• Technology: Prospective photographers should remember to bring a tripod and remote timer, as all cameras need to sit still for long periods of time in order to gather enough light to capture photos of the dark sky. Smartphone users should also remember to shoot in RAW image format in night mode with their flash turned off. A 3–10 second exposure or night mode picks up color and structure your eyes miss, especially in weaker activity.

What to Watch Next

Bz is the north–south direction of the solar wind's magnetic field. When it points south (below about -3 nT), it connects with Earth's field and lets solar wind energy pour in, the on-switch for bright aurora.

The number of sunspots on the sun's surface changes on a fairly regular cycle, which scientists refer to as the sun's 11-year cycle variation. Auroral activity tends to peak slightly after the solar maximum by around one year. Observers should continue to check updated three-hour Kp index forecasts.