The next pandemic is not a matter of if, but when,' Oxford professor says

Global health experts warn that a future pandemic is an inevitability, driven by a combination of climate change, urbanization and the increasing encroachment of humans into wildlife habitats. While the scientific community has made leaps in vaccine technology, leaders caution that political complacency and funding fatigue may leave the world dangerously exposed to the next major outbreak.

The Certainty of Future Outbreaks

Adrian Hill, a professor at Oxford University and co-founder of the Jenner Institute, states that epidemics are not a thing of the past. He argues that while many outbreaks are contained quickly by public health measures, a more serious event emerges roughly once every decade. This sentiment is shared by researchers at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, who describe the next pandemic as a matter of not if, but when.

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The risk is quantified in a report from the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI), which estimates the cumulative probability of another pandemic in the next 25 years to be between 47% and 57%. This is based on an annual risk of approximately 2.5-3.3%. While a flu pandemic is considered the most likely scenario, experts also highlight the threat of Disease X—an unknown pathogen—or other bat-borne viruses.

Current alarms are centering on the H5N1 avian influenza, or bird flu. The virus has spread among poultry and dairy cows in the U.S. And has infected a small number of farmworkers.

Technological Gains vs. Systemic Failures

Professor Hill notes that the greatest achievement of the recent pandemic was proving the scientific community could develop a vaccine within a year, a timeframe previously considered unthinkable. Hill, who won the 2026 European Inventor Award for developing the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine, believes existing infrastructure now allows for quicker detection of pathogens and the rapid organization of clinical trials.

In the UK, the Moderna Innovation and Technology Centre in Harwell became fully operational last year, capable of producing up to 250 million mRNA vaccine doses annually. However, Professor Sir Jonathan Van-Tam warns that relying on a single technology is a mistake. He likens vaccine modalities to a football squad; while mRNA is an agile central defender, other threats may require viral vectors, protein subunits, or virus-like particles.

Despite these gains, several critical vulnerabilities persist:

• Infrastructure Loss: The UK government sold the Vaccine Manufacturing and Innovation Centre to a private pharmaceutical company in 2022.
• Funding Cuts: The government has faced criticism for cutting funds to the Global Polio Eradication Initiative and the Pandemic Fund.

The "Cycle of Neglect"

Public sentiment and political will pose significant barriers to readiness. Sir Peter Horby, director of Oxford University’s Pandemic Sciences Institute, expressed significant doubts that lockdowns could ever be implemented again due to public skepticism and the trauma of those adversely affected. Sir Jonathan Van-Tam added that public sentiment was further damaged by reports of parties at No.10 Downing Street while citizens were asked to make sacrifices.

This COVID fatigue is echoed by Harvard researchers, who suggest that the emotional toll of recent years may lead people to minimize future threats.

To combat this, Professor Hill emphasizes that the remedy for disinformation is education. He suggests that investing in the health of poorer countries is an investment in global security, as diseases quickly spill over national borders in a globalized world.

Immediate and Emerging Threats

Pathogen/Threat	Current Status/Risk	Primary Driver
Measles	Global outbreaks increasing	Drop in vaccination rates/anti-vax movement
Dengue	Locally acquired cases in L.A. And Arizona	Climate change expanding vector range
Antimicrobial Resistance	Gonorrhea resistant to all approved antibiotics in some U.S. Cases	Overuse of treatments; global spread
Tuberculosis (TB)	1.5 million annual deaths	Poverty and lack of governance