Tope Fasua: Tinubu’s Economic Reforms Working, Worst Is Over For Nigeria

The Nigerian government is claiming the strongest economic growth in over a decade, but these macroeconomic markers stand in sharp contrast to a public grappling with high fuel prices and a rising cost of living. While federal advisers point to record GDP figures as evidence that structural reforms are delivering, the tension remains whether these gains are reaching the average household or remaining confined to balance sheets.

Tope Fasua, the Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Economic Affairs, asserts that Nigeria has moved beyond the worst phase of its current downturn. He argues that the administration's policies have already stabilized key indicators and that the economy is now on a trajectory of stronger growth, despite the immediate shocks felt by citizens since 2023.

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The 'Numbers' Defense: GDP and Fiscal Metrics

The central pillar of the government's argument is a recent GDP growth figure of 4.43%. According to Fasua in an interview with Arise News, this represents the highest growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2014. He maintains that these numbers prove the reforms are working, dismissing suggestions that the growth is insignificant.

Beyond GDP, the administration is highlighting a series of capital and fiscal markers to signal stability to investors and international bodies. This includes the removal of Nigeria from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list and a significant increase in the stock market, which Fasua claims grew by 130 trillion Naira. He also noted that the insurance sector was recapitalized by 300 billion Naira, while banks saw a recapitalization of 4.3 trillion Naira, primarily sourced locally through the stock market.

Sectoral Migration: Tech vs. Manufacturing

A point of contention has been the perceived decline of Nigeria's industrial manufacturing sector. Fasua rejected the notion that this sector has suffered a "sharp" decline, stating that manufacturing has historically hovered between 7% and 9% of the economy. He noted a marginal dip of only 0.01% between quarters.

The government views this not as a failure of industry, but as a natural transition toward a modern economy. Fasua argues that the services sector — which includes media, information technology, and social media — is expanding rapidly and offsetting industrial stagnation. In his view, Nigeria is moving toward an economy driven by "productivity, value addition to raw materials," and the export of finished goods, such as solar panels (totaling 78 billion Naira in 2025) and vehicles from companies like Innoson Motors.

The Household Gap and the Poverty Debate

Despite these figures, the daily reality for many Nigerians is defined by inflation. Fasua acknowledged that fuel prices are a primary driver of inflation, attributing the recent uptick in crude prices to the US-Iran war. However, he argued that Nigeria should not be judged solely by petrol costs, highlighting the country's emergence as a net exporter of refined products, including PMS and Jet A1, via the Dangote platform.

The most striking disconnect appears in the debate over income and poverty. While critics argue that wages have not kept pace with inflation, Fasua claimed that earnings for various categories of workers, including civil servants, artisans, and media professionals, have actually doubled in the last two years.

This disagreement extends to how poverty is measured. Fasua challenged the credibility of International Monetary Fund (IMF) poverty estimates, arguing that the IMF lacks the capacity to independently verify data in the remotest parts of Nigeria. He asserted that the IMF relies on data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and criticized the "schadenfreude" of focusing exclusively on negative narratives.

To counter poverty statistics, Fasua pointed to employment figures, estimating that approximately 90 million people are employed across various sectors. He emphasized that many of these workers support multiple dependents, and noted that the NBS fails to capture "new economy" roles, such as content creators and those working online.

Shift in Accountability

The federal government is now pushing for a shift in how citizens perceive economic responsibility. Fasua argued that the President cannot solve every problem and emphasized that state and local governments possess the power and resources to address localized economic distress.

He urged Nigerians to hold their state and local authorities accountable for the funds allocated to them, suggesting that the federal government has already empowered these lower tiers of government to deliver results.

The government's outlook remains optimistic, with Fasua projecting that inflation and interest rates will continue to ease and the naira will strengthen. He maintains that 2024 was the toughest year following the immediate shocks of the 2023 reforms, and that the "worst is over" as the economy enters a phase of managed recovery.