UN weather agency warns strong El Nino to intensify from August

Grain producers and agricultural planners across South Asia are confronting an intensifying global climate cycle as international meteorological authorities warn that a powerful El Niño will accelerate beginning in August. According to the World Meteorological Organization, the developing phenomenon is projected to increase above-normal temperatures globally and significantly shift rainfall patterns, carrying immediate economic and operational weight for food production systems.

That planetary warning arrives against a backdrop of unprecedented ocean heat, according to United Nations officials who stressed that governments possess a narrow window to deploy early warning systems before the most severe regional consequences manifest. Multi-model projections cited by the WMO indicate that seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies are expected to exceed 2.9 degrees Celsius in key monitoring regions, operating in tandem with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole where the western basin becomes warmer than average while the eastern Indian Ocean turns cooler, as reported by outlets including Kfgo and news.un.org.

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UN Secretary-General António Guterres cautioned about the broader trajectory of the crisis, stating via Kfgo and News:

"El Niño is strengthening, adding fuel to a planet already on fire with scorching heat domes, apocalyptic wildfires and record hot seas."

António Guterres, UN Secretary-General, via KFGO and news.un.org

Those warnings translate into acute agricultural risks in nations heavily dependent on seasonal rains. In India, the India Meteorological Department reported on Friday, July 31, 2026, that the country is heading into the most critical phase of its monsoon season with expectations of below-normal rainfall through September, directly threatening essential kharif crops and rural purchasing power. The IMD forecasts that India will receive less than 94 percent of its Long Period Average rainfall during the second half of the June-September monsoon season, with the August-September LPA benchmark standing at 422.8 millimeters based on historical climatological records spanning from 1971 to 2020.

This follows a volatile meteorological start that saw June rainfall drop 35.4 percent below normal before rebounding to 1 percent above normal during July, when the country received 283.3 millimeters against the normal 280.5 millimeters. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology at the IMD, noted that the share of districts with normal or better rainfall increased from 30 percent in June to 53 percent in July, while deficient and large deficient districts declined from 69 percent to 46 percent, according to reporting from Livemint.

Economists and agricultural experts warn that persistent moisture deficits during the peak sowing and growing window will compress farm incomes and reignite food inflation. As of late July, farmers had planted kharif crops across 78.7 million hectares, trailing behind the 82.6 million hectares recorded at the same point during the previous year, according to agriculture ministry data cited by Livemint. Acreage for paddy, pulses, oilseeds, and cotton remains depressed, heightening sensitivity to the upcoming autumn weather pattern.

Retail price pressures are already visible, with Indian retail inflation having accelerated to 4.38 percent in June, driven primarily by food and fuel costs that breached central bank targets. S&P Global Ratings warned earlier in July that a weak monsoon could push India's inflation to 5.1 percent in fiscal year 2027 while squeezing farm incomes, though the finance ministry's July Monthly Economic Review noted that robust paddy and wheat buffer stocks provide some protection against the projected El Niño transition.

Agricultural experts note that the ultimate economic impact will depend on the geographic concentration of any dry zones. Gurudas Nulkar, director of the Centre for Sustainable Development at the Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics in Pune, cautioned that if the deficits hit predominantly agricultural areas, food price inflation will follow and place pressure on the government to compensate for rural losses. Conversely, if rainfall remains around 94 percent of the LPA and deficits are concentrated outside major food-producing states, the broader economic fallout is expected to remain manageable. Anjal Prakash, a professor of public policy at FLAME University in Pune, observed that while the wider economy remains resilient, persistent rainfall shortfalls during the sowing period can lift prices for pulses and oilseeds and add to inflationary pressures.

Monsoon Performance and El Niño Indicators

• June rainfall dropped 35.4 percent below the Long Period Average before recovering in July to reach 283.3 millimeters against a normal of 280.5 millimeters.
• Farmers had planted kharif crops across 78.7 million hectares as of late July, down from 82.6 million hectares during the same period in the previous year.
• Seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies are projected to exceed 2.9 degrees Celsius in key monitoring regions under multi-model WMO forecasts.