Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tie at 41% in Brazil runoff poll

BRASILIA — President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva spent the morning of September 7, 2026, overseeing a formal civic-military parade in the capital, projecting an image of institutional stability and national sovereignty. By the afternoon, Flávio Bolsonaro was standing in the rain on São Paulo's Avenida Paulista, addressing thousands of supporters in green and yellow shirts who gathered to demand the removal of both the president and a senior Supreme Court justice. The contrast between the two events mirrors a sudden shift in the electoral landscape. A new poll from Quaest reveals that in a simulated runoff for the presidency, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are now numerically tied at 41%. While Lula maintains a lead in the first-round simulation, the runoff data indicates the opposition has erased a previous narrow advantage, coinciding with a judicial scandal that has provided Flávio Bolsonaro with a potent new campaign narrative.

The Shift in Poll Data

The latest Quaest survey, conducted between September 3 and September 6 among 2,004 adults, marks a departure from previous trends. Just five days prior, on September 2, Lula held a slight edge of 42% to 41%. While that gap was considered a technical tie due to a two-point margin of error, the current results show a total erasure of that difference. According to reporting from 20minutos and MVS Noticias, this represents the first time since March that the two candidates have been numerically tied in a second-round simulation.

Voting Scenario	Lula (Left)	Flávio Bolsonaro (Right)	Other/Undecided
First Round (Oct 4)	36%	29%	Others (incl. 8% Augusto Cury)
Runoff (Oct 25)	41%	41%	18% (Indecided/Null/Blank)

Judicial Scandal as Campaign Engine

The timing of the poll coincides with a crisis within the Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF). Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who is viewed as close to Lula, is currently embroiled in a scandal involving his relationship with Daniel Vorcaro, a banker imprisoned in Brasilia on fraud charges. Vorcaro is suspected of a fraud estimated at 10 billion dollars. Reporting indicates that messages sent by Vorcaro to Moraes suggest an attempt to evade the investigation that led to the banker's detention. Flávio Bolsonaro has used this development to link the sitting president directly to judicial corruption.

"Fuera Lula, fuera Moraes. Lula es el responsable por el caos moral que Brasil está atravesando hoy"

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Flávio Bolsonaro, Senator and Candidate, via Yahoo Noticias

The senator's campaign has transformed into a crusade against the judiciary. He specifically targeted Moraes, who served as the instructor in the 2025 case that sentenced former president Jair Bolsonaro to 27 years in prison for attempting a coup. Flávio Bolsonaro has denounced this as a form of judicial pursuit and characterized his father as a man who is correct and honest.

Contrasting Visions of Sovereignty

The Independence Day celebrations highlighted two fundamentally different interpretations of the Brazilian state. Lula's approach focused on autonomy and the rejection of foreign influence. In a televised message on September 6, Lula asserted that Brazil cannot bajar la cabeza ante potencias extranjeras (lower its head to foreign powers), specifically referencing tariffs imposed by the United States in July. In contrast, Flávio Bolsonaro's rally on Avenida Paulista — attended by approximately 28,500 people according to Eleconomista, was an exercise in anti-judicialism. The crowd featured American flags and an effigy of Donald Trump, signaling a right-wing alignment that views the domestic judiciary as the primary enemy. Bolsonaro's protest candidacy includes a promise to prevent Lula from appointing new judges similar to Moraes. Alexandre de Moraes va a caer, Bolsonaro declared during the rally.

The Broader Field and Electoral Risks

Beyond the two frontrunners, the race remains fragmented. Augusto Cury, a psychiatrist and political newcomer from the center party Avante, currently holds 8% support, though this is a decrease of two points from five days ago. Other right-wing candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, sit at 3%, with Romeu Zema at 2%. At the bottom of the field, influencer Pablo Marçal and leftist Samara Martins each hold 1%. Marçal's candidacy faces potential annulment by the justice system due to his current ineligibility. The volatility of the race is further complicated by a significant portion of the electorate that remains detached. According to 20minutos, 9% of voters are undecided, while another 8% intend to vote blank, null, or abstain, despite voting being mandatory in Brazil.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is the runoff poll different from the first-round poll?

The first-round poll measures support among all candidates, where Lula leads with 36% and Bolsonaro has 29%. The runoff poll simulates a head-to-head match between the top two, showing that the opposition's fragmented support consolidates behind Flávio Bolsonaro, resulting in a 41% tie.

Who is Daniel Vorcaro and why does he matter?

Vorcaro is a banker imprisoned for a suspected 10 billion dollar fraud. His alleged private communications with Justice Alexandre de Moraes have created a scandal that Flávio Bolsonaro is using to argue that the judiciary is corrupt and biased toward the current administration.

The alignment of the right-wing base in São Paulo, combined with the continuing judicial friction in Brasilia, leaves the race in a state of numerical equilibrium. The focus now shifts to the first-round election on October 4, which will determine if the current tie persists into the final stage of the contest. The upcoming vote will test whether the anti-judicial sentiment mobilized on Avenida Paulista can translate into a first-round victory or a forced runoff on October 25. With the right-wing candidacy explicitly framed as a protest against the STF, the result depends on whether the 18% of voters who are currently undecided or abstaining align with the institutional stability of the current administration or the opposition's call for judicial overhaul.