Danube's Low Levels Threaten Nuclear Power Outputs in Hungary and Romania

The Paks nuclear facility, which provides nearly half of the nation's electricity, has been forced to reduce its operations to below 50% capacity to manage a critical shortage of cooling water.

Prime Minister Peter Magyar stated on Thursday, that the plant could be powered down entirely by Thursday or Friday, with a critical situation potentially manifesting by Monday.

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The danger is compounded by a failure at another site: the Szazhalombatta gas-fired power plant, Hungary's largest of its kind, suffered a malfunction that removed an additional 400 megawatts from the grid. This coincides with a heatwave-driven spike in electricity demand, with an expected 20% jump during evening peak hours as residents rely on air conditioning.

Across the border in Romania, the situation at the Cernavoda plant shows a similar struggle with the river's depths. State-owned producer Nuclearelectrica has already disconnected its first reactor earlier this week. While the company reported on Thursday that its second 706-megawatt reactor remained connected to the grid, it had previously indicated on Wednesday that the second unit would be shut down starting Thursday.

These reactors, which together account for roughly a fifth of Romania's power production, face the same cooling deficit as Paks. Romanian Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan suggested that these shutdowns could last for one to two weeks and has urged citizens to voluntarily reduce power use in the evenings.

The grid operator is requesting voluntary consumption cuts between 5 p.m. And 10 p.m. Local time, specifically asking citizens to refrain from using air conditioners and charging electric vehicles.

Large consumers, specifically car and battery manufacturers, have been asked to lower their intake. Prime Minister Magyar confirmed that the state maintains a list of these industrial entities whose consumption could be limited temporarily if an emergency arises.

"It is in our common interest to avoid unplanned shutdowns and a system collapse,"

Peter Magyar, Prime Minister of Hungary, via Globalbankingandfinance

Hungary is attempting to buffer this deficit through its interconnection with neighboring grids. According to Magyar, the country possesses an import capacity of 3,600 to 3,800 megawatts, which he claims could cover the nation's electricity needs even if the Paks plant shuts down completely.

The vulnerability of the Danube-dependent plants is not an isolated incident but part of a broader seasonal risk. In France, where nuclear energy provides roughly two-thirds of the electricity, output has also been curtailed because rivers cannot provide sufficient water for cooling. Researchers cited by Globalbankingandfinance note that these shortages have become a recurring risk as droughts and extreme heat increase in frequency.

Beyond the energy grid, the record lows of the waterway have disrupted river cruises and cargo shipping on one of Europe's busiest trade routes.

The Paks facility has operated for 44 years, but the current drought has pushed it toward a shutdown that Magyar suggests could be the first of its kind due to insufficient cooling water. Plant operators have warned that a full shutdown will become unavoidable within the next 24 to 72 hours if water levels remain critically low.

Operational Constraints and Temperature Spikes

The facility began cutting its output on Monday, and has since dropped to less than 50% capacity. The 2-gigawatt plant relies on four Russian-built reactors to maintain its output. This reduction occurs alongside extreme thermal stress; the Reuters Climate Monitor reported that the average peak temperature for Hungary on Thursday was forecast to be 35 degrees Celsius, which is 8.8 degrees above the normal high for July 30-31.

The precarious state of the Romanian grid is highlighted by the shifting status of the Cernavoda plant. While Nuclearelectrica reported on Thursday that its second reactor remained connected, the company had stated on Wednesday that the unit would be shut down starting Thursday after the first reactor was disconnected earlier in the week. The Romanian government is bracing for these shutdowns to persist for one to two weeks.

Hungarian authorities are now managing a tightening window of stability. Prime Minister Magyar indicated in a video message via Aa that the state is preparing emergency measures, as an energy crisis could begin as early as Monday. For the Paks facility, the next step depends on the river's depth, as operators warned a full shutdown will become unavoidable within 24 to 72 hours if water levels remain critically low.