Sergio Moro leads Paraná governor's race with 35%, poll shows

CURITIBA — Senator Sergio Moro (PL) holds a 35% lead in the race for the government of Paraná, but simulation data indicates a significantly tighter contest should the election proceed to a second turn against the PSD candidate. In a hypothetical runoff between the two, Moro's advantage narrows to 43% against 36% for Sandro Alex. The disparity between first-turn dominance and second-turn proximity highlights a volatile electorate. While Moro has maintained stability in stimulated polling, Sandro Alex has demonstrated a consistent upward trend across the last three surveys conducted by the Real Time Big Data institute, reducing the gap between the frontrunner and the challenger.

First-Turn Dynamics and Candidate Momentum

The current polling landscape is defined by a contrast between established leadership and emerging growth. According to data from Banda B and Massa, Sergio Moro's 35% share represents a plateau, as he showed no growth compared to the August 28 measurement. Conversely, Sandro Alex, the candidate supported by current governor Ratinho Junior (PSD), has climbed to 25%. This represents a 2-percentage-point increase from his previous 23% standing. This upward movement places Alex in a technical tie with state deputy Requião Filho (PDT), who holds 21%. Because the margin of error for the survey is 2 percentage points, the difference between Alex and Requião Filho is not statistically significant, as reported by CartaCapital and Veja.

Candidate (Party)	Stimulated Vote %	Spontaneous Vote %
Sergio Moro (PL)	35%	18%
Sandro Alex (PSD)	25%	11%
Requião Filho (PDT)	21%	10%
Luiz França (Missão)	2%	—
Others	1%	3% (incl. Ratinho Jr)

Second-Turn Simulations

The Real Time Big Data institute tested three distinct runoff scenarios. While Moro leads in every simulation in which he is a participant, the degree of his lead varies sharply depending on the opponent. In a clash with Requião Filho, Moro holds a decisive advantage with 53% against 29%. However, the simulated matchup against Sandro Alex is the most competitive of the set. In this scenario, Moro registers 43% while Alex reaches 36%. If the runoff were to occur between the two challengers, Sandro Alex is the favorite, leading Requião Filho 40% to 31%.

Methodological Divergence: Spontaneous vs. Stimulated

A critical point of tension in the data is the massive shift in undecided voters depending on how the question is asked. The survey uses two distinct methodologies:

• Stimulated Scenario: The interviewer provides a list of candidates. In this setup, only 10% of respondents stated they did not know or did not answer.
• Spontaneous Scenario: Respondents are asked to name a candidate freely without prompts. In this setup, 46% of paranaenses are undecided.

This 36-point gap suggests that while Moro has the highest name recognition, leading the spontaneous count with 18%, nearly half the electorate has not internally committed to a candidate without external guidance. Gazeta do Povo noted that this data serves as a "momentary reading" rather than a prediction, citing that 2022 polls showed relevant discrepancies when compared to the actual ballot results.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the margin of error for this poll?

The margin of error is 2 percentage points, for more or for less, with a 95% confidence level.

Related YouTube video

Who is Sandro Alex?

He is a candidate from the PSD party who is supported by the current governor of Paraná, Ratinho Junior.

When was the data collected?

The Real Time Big Data institute conducted interviews between September 4 and September 8, 2026.

Runoff Projections and Voter Resistance

The competitive nature of the race is most evident in the simulated runoff scenarios. While Moro leads in every pairing featuring his name, the margin of victory fluctuates based on the opponent. In a potential face-off with Requião Filho, Moro holds a significant 53% lead over the PDT candidate's 29%. However, the matchup with Sandro Alex is considerably tighter, with Moro at 43% and Alex at 36%. Further data from Banda B reveals a high volume of neutralized votes in these scenarios. In the Moro-Alex simulation, 10% of respondents would vote blank or null, and 11% remain undecided. In the Moro-Requião Filho pairing, blank or null votes stand at 7%, with 11% not knowing or refusing to answer. The polling also tracks a wider political context in the state. According to Money Times, the race for the Senate is currently a tight contest between Deltan Dallagnol at 19%, and Alexandre Curi and Filipe Barros, who each hold 18%. The validity of these trends remains subject to the volatility noted by the institute. With the survey registered under TSE protocol PR-08220/2026, the next step is to determine if the growth trend for Sandro Alex continues into subsequent measurements or if the high percentage of spontaneous undecided voters shifts in favor of the frontrunner.