Argentina enters World Cup final against Spain as betting underdog

Argentina will defend its world title as the betting underdog on Sunday, July 19, when it faces Spain at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The defending champions enter the final after a volatile run to the decider, while Spain arrives as the pre-tournament favorite and current market leader.

According to Yahoo Sports, Kalshi gives Spain a 58.3% probability of lifting the trophy, compared to 42.5% for Argentina. Should Argentina win, they would become the first men's team to win back-to-back World Cups since Brazil in 1958 and 1962, as reported by Sports Illustrated.

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Contrasting Paths to the Final

Argentina’s journey to the final has been defined by resilience and late-game heroics. They required extra time to edge Cape Verde in the Round of 32 and Switzerland 3-1 in the quarterfinals. In the Round of 16, they scored three goals in the final 11 minutes of regulation to beat Egypt 3-2. Their place in the final was secured with a 2-1 victory over England, overturning a 1-0 deficit with two late goals.

Spain, by contrast, has displayed a dominant, controlled form. After a scoreless draw with Cape Verde to open the group stage, La Roja won six consecutive matches. They capped this run with a 2-0 "masterclass" over France in the semifinals on Tuesday.

Tactical Matchup: Midfield vs. Magic

Analysts suggest the game will be decided by Spain's ability to control the tempo. Sporting News reports that Spain's primary strength is Argentina's biggest weakness: midfield superiority. The publication notes that the Argentine midfield has been "carved to shreds" at various points by opponents including Cape Verde and Egypt. Sporting News also highlights Argentina's lack of attacking width, citing a poor outing by Giuliano Simeone against England.

But Argentina possesses a wildcard in 39-year-old Lionel Messi. The captain leads the tournament with eight goals and four assists. According to The New York Times, Messi's influence is the primary reason some experts believe Argentina can defy the odds. Other factors include the "home field" advantage in the U.S. And the team's psychological momentum from repeated comebacks.

Spain will rely on the tactical plan of manager Luis de la Fuente and the emergence of 19-year-old prodigy Lamine Yamal. While Yamal has scored only once in the competition, he remains a potent threat. Spain's attack is currently led by Mikel Oyarzabal, who has five goals in the competition.

Historical Context and Individual Stakes

This final marks only the second time these two nations have met in a World Cup. The first encounter took place during the 1966 edition in a Group Stage match that Argentina won 2-1. For Spain, a victory would be their second title, the first since 2010.

Several individual awards are pending after the final:

• Golden Boot: Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe are both tied at eight goals. Mbappe may increase his tally during Saturday's third-place match against England.
• Golden Glove: Spain's Unai Simon is a heavy favorite after conceding only one goal in seven matches.
• Golden Ball: Predictions are split between Messi's historic tournament and Spain's collective dominance.
• Best Young Player: Contenders include Lamine Yamal and center-back Pau Cubarsi.

Match Outlook

Feature	Spain	Argentina
Win Probability (Kalshi)	58.3%	42.5%
Goals Conceded	1	Multiple
Key Player	Mikel Oyarzabal (5 goals)	Lionel Messi (8 goals)
Tournament Goal	Second Title (first since 2010)	Fourth Title (second consecutive)

What happens next: The world turns to Saturday's third-place playoff between France and England before the main event on Sunday afternoon, where Spain and Argentina will vie for the title in the first-ever 48-team World Cup.