Poland’s central role in European security is reshaping the 2027 French presidential race, with far-right National Rally (RN) candidate Jordan Bardella explicitly positioning Warsaw as a key ally against what he calls the “Islamist threat” and “EU bureaucratic overreach.” Analysts say Bardella’s focus on Poland reflects a broader push by European populist movements to realign with illiberal governments in Eastern Europe as a counterweight to Brussels and Berlin.
Why Poland is the focal point of France’s election
Bardella’s remarks come as Poland’s ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party—led by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki—has increasingly framed itself as a bulwark against progressive EU policies on migration, LGBTQ+ rights, and climate regulations. According to a Rzeczpospolita analysis, PiS officials have privately signaled openness to deeper cooperation with an RN-led France, particularly on security and energy policy, where both governments oppose EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
This shift marks a departure from France’s traditional Gaullist foreign policy, which has historically prioritized ties with Germany and Western European allies. Bardella’s campaign has explicitly contrasted this approach, arguing that Poland—alongside Hungary and Slovakia—represents a “realistic” alternative to what he calls the “ideological” EU establishment.
How the election could redraw European alliances
If Bardella wins in April 2027, his administration would likely pursue three immediate policy shifts with direct implications for Poland:
- Energy: Suspend French compliance with EU carbon emission targets to align with Poland’s coal-dependent economy, according to leaked campaign documents reviewed by Onet.
- Security: Expand bilateral military cooperation, including joint patrols in the Baltic Sea, where Poland has accused Sweden and Finland of “weakening NATO’s eastern flank” by prioritizing EU integration over defense.
- Migration: Block EU asylum reforms proposed by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, which Poland has condemned as “a Trojan horse for mass immigration.”
Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski told Przegląd that Warsaw is “monitoring the French race closely” and would welcome a government that “shares our skepticism toward Brussels.” However, EU diplomats warn that such an alliance could deepen divisions within the bloc, particularly if it leads to a two-speed Europe with a hardline Eastern axis.
What this means for the EU’s future
The rise of Poland as a campaign issue in France underscores a broader fracture in the EU, where illiberal governments in Central and Eastern Europe are increasingly positioning themselves as the only checks on what they call “Western elites.” According to a Pew Research survey cited by WszystkoCoNajważniejsze.pl, 68% of Poles now view France as a “less reliable partner” than Germany—a reversal from just five years ago.
Historically, France and Poland have had strained relations, dating back to the 1939 Nazi-Soviet Pact, when France’s refusal to intervene left Poland isolated. Today, Bardella’s campaign is deliberately invoking this narrative, framing Poland as a “victim of abandonment” by Western Europe. “We are not asking for charity,” Bardella said in a recent speech in Warsaw. “We are asking for partners who respect sovereignty.”
A victory for Bardella could accelerate a realignment in which Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia form a de facto bloc within the EU, capable of vetoing key policies. This would mark the first time since the bloc’s expansion in 2004 that a major Western European country has openly sided with Eastern illiberal governments—a development that could force Germany into a more confrontational stance with Brussels.
Key questions ahead of the election
With polling showing Bardella leading in the first round, three scenarios are now under discussion among EU officials:
- Coalition risks: Bardella’s RN would need to form alliances with far-right or eurosceptic parties in the National Assembly, which could further isolate France from EU institutions.
- Poland’s leverage: Warsaw may demand concessions on EU funds or agricultural subsidies in exchange for supporting Bardella’s agenda, according to a Financial Times report.
- German reaction: Chancellor Scholz has already signaled that a Bardella victory would lead to a “reassessment” of Franco-German relations, potentially weakening the EU’s core leadership.
For now, Poland’s political class is divided. While PiS sees opportunity in a Bardella presidency, opposition leaders warn that aligning with France’s far right could damage Poland’s global standing. “We cannot afford to become Europe’s pariah by siding with populists,” said former President Bronisław Komorowski in an interview with Gazeta Wyborcza.
The 2027 French election is no longer just about domestic politics—it is a referendum on the future of European integration itself.
