Live-action Moana box office projections drop to $40 million after previews

Disney’s live-action reimagining of Moana faces a difficult path to profitability following a muted debut in North American theaters. After beginning preview screenings on Thursday, July 9, 2026, the film earned $4.5 million, a figure that has led analysts to significantly downgrade opening weekend projections. While earlier industry tracking suggested a domestic debut between $60 million and $65 million—and even higher figures earlier in the summer—current expectations have coalesced around a range of $40 million to $50 million.

The film, directed by Thomas Kail and starring Catherine Laga’aia alongside Dwayne Johnson, faces steep financial hurdles. With a reported production budget of $250 million, industry estimates suggest the project requires a global gross between $600 million and $700 million to reach its break-even point. This opening performance places the production in a challenging position.

Related Instagram post

Comparative Opening Preview Performance

The tepid box office arrival arrives less than two years after the November 2024 release of Moana 2, which earned $225 million domestically over its five-day Thanksgiving debut and surpassed $1 billion globally. The Hollywood Reporter notes that the original 2016 animated film arrived nearly a decade ago, yet the frequency of these releases remains a point of industry debate.

Critical reception has also been divided. While some reviews offer praise for the visual scale and the performances of the lead cast, the film holds a 37 percent approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Reviewers such as Tasha Robinson writing for Polygon suggested that virtually every line, beat, and song in the new movie is identical to the 2016 version, while Jake Coyle of the Associated Press remarked that all inventiveness has gone out to sea. Conversely, Holr Magazine highlights that the film remains a faithful adaptation that aims to celebrate Polynesian culture through a new, live-action lens.

The competitive landscape for the film is crowded. Families currently have access to other options in theaters, including Disney’s Toy Story 5, which has crossed $800 million globally, and Universal’s Minions & Monsters. Furthermore, the film’s window for large-format screens is limited. According to Cosmicbook, the arrival of Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey on July 17, 2026, will likely occupy the IMAX and premium large-format screens currently utilized by Moana.

While the Thursday preview figure is higher than the $3.5 million earned by Snow White in 2025, it tracks closer to that film's eventual commercial struggle than the higher-earning remakes in Disney’s portfolio. As the studio monitors audience metrics, the performance of Moana will serve as a bellwether for its strategy regarding other upcoming live-action adaptations currently in development, such as a reimagining of Tangled.

What to Watch Next

• Weekend Finales: Industry trackers will analyze Friday estimates and weekend audience exit polling to determine if the film exhibits the "long legs" often characteristic of family-oriented releases.
• International Rollout: Global markets are projected to contribute $70 million to $75 million, which will be essential to mitigating the impact of the domestic opening.
• July 17 Shift: The theatrical landscape changes significantly next week when premium screen availability shifts to the release of The Odyssey.