Colombia’s Presidential Election: How the Ongoing Conflict Shapes the Vote

Colombia’s brutal internal conflict is defining its presidential election as voters prepare for a runoff that could reshape the country’s political and security landscape. The contest between two leading candidates—former senator Iván Cepeda and businesswoman Claudia López—has intensified scrutiny over how to address decades of violence, displacement, and organized crime. With the nation’s history of guerrilla wars, drug trafficking, and state instability casting a long shadow, the outcome of the vote could determine the trajectory of Colombia’s efforts to achieve lasting peace and stability.

The Political Landscape and Key Candidates

The upcoming runoff, scheduled for June 19, pits Cepeda, a progressive lawyer and former human rights advocate, against López, a centrist economist and former mayor of Bogotá. Both candidates have framed the conflict as a central issue, but their approaches diverge sharply. Cepeda, a former ally of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), has emphasized reconciliation and addressing the root causes of violence, while López has focused on economic recovery and security reforms.

Cepeda’s campaign has drawn both support and criticism. His past ties to the FARC, which was historically one of the most powerful armed groups in the country, have led some to question his credibility. However, his advocacy for victims’ rights and his push for a new social contract have resonated with voters in rural areas and marginalized communities. López, meanwhile, has positioned herself as a pragmatic leader who can restore order and attract foreign investment, appealing to urban and business-oriented voters.

According to recent polls, Cepeda holds a narrow lead, but the race remains tightly contested. Analysts suggest that the conflict’s legacy—particularly the 2016 peace agreement with the FARC—will be a deciding factor. The agreement, which saw the demobilization of over 15,000 fighters, has faced challenges, including the rise of new armed groups and the displacement of thousands. Both candidates have pledged to strengthen the peace process, but their visions for implementation differ.

Historical Context of the Conflict

Colombia’s internal conflict dates back to the 1960s, when the FARC emerged as a Marxist guerrilla group seeking to overthrow the government and establish a socialist state. Over the decades, the conflict expanded to include other groups, such as the National Liberation Army (ELN), paramilitary organizations, and drug cartels. The violence has left over 260,000 people dead and displaced more than 8 million, according to the United Nations.

The 2016 peace deal with the FARC marked a turning point, but its implementation has been uneven. While the group transitioned to political participation, other armed factions, including the ELN and criminal gangs, have continued to operate in rural regions. The government’s ability to provide security and economic opportunities in these areas has been limited, fueling ongoing instability.

International actors have also played a role in the conflict. The U.S. has provided military and financial support to Colombia since the 1990s, including the Plan Colombia initiative, which aimed to combat drug trafficking and insurgent groups. While the program reduced the flow of cocaine, it also led to human rights abuses and environmental damage, according to critics.

Impact on Voter Behavior and Policy Priorities

The conflict’s legacy has profoundly influenced voter priorities. A 2022 survey by the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) found that 78% of Colombians consider security and violence as the most pressing issues. This has forced candidates to address the conflict directly, even as they balance other concerns like economic inequality and climate change.

Cepeda has called for a “comprehensive approach” to peace, including land reform, access to education, and support for former combatants. He has also criticized the government’s reliance on military solutions, arguing that they fail to address the systemic issues driving violence. “The conflict is not just about arms—it’s about the conditions that allow these groups to thrive,” he said in a recent interview.

López, by contrast, has emphasized the need for “stability and growth.” Her platform includes increased investment in infrastructure, job creation, and cybersecurity to counter the threat of organized crime. She has also pledged to